Is the IT Market Collapsing? What's Going On and My Forecast

I'm deep into implementing AI right now: testing how different programs can be developed automatically and combining all of it with 3D. And honestly, I'm horrified. Just six months ago, it wasn't like this.

By now, everyone has noticed that something is going on with the IT market. Here's what I'm seeing myself, who I think will get hit hardest and where all of this is heading. Fair warning: my forecast isn't exactly a cheerful one.

Jobs are already being cut, and it's happening while companies are actively adding AI to their pipelines. This isn't talk about the future anymore: the changes are hitting people right now, and the entire computer tech market is getting badly shaken up.

Just look at component prices, they've gone through the roof. A simple PC you could once build for $1,000 now costs three or even four times as much. For $1,000, you can get a computer that can barely handle an average scene in 3ds Max.

Many people have been unable to find a job for a year now, and some for even longer. Meanwhile, employers want far too much from candidates, and you're now expected to know a huge tech stack.

It used to be simpler. A 3D artist, for example, could get by with 3ds Max, the basic renderers (V-Ray/Corona) and Photoshop. A programmer only had to know PHP, a bit of JavaScript and HTML+CSS. Now the list doesn't stop at two or three technologies or programs. It's grown so much that even experienced people with long careers can fail to land another job. Even a Junior position.

Looking at all this, it feels like the market is collapsing, and the further it goes, the worse it gets. In my opinion, the segment that handles the technical side, meaning programmers, will suffer the most.

Mass layoffs are happening right now. And where people aren't being laid off, companies most likely aren't taking on new candidates anymore and only hire more experienced ones. And why is that? Because artificial intelligence can now do a ton of work, even very complex work. It doesn't matter whether it's scripting for 3ds Max or pure programming.

I remember that in 2022, agents couldn't write even the most basic MAXScript. Now they do things that are just hard to describe. In three days, you can make a fast and fairly complex script that used to take several years to develop. For example, Height Map Studio, which creates Normal, Displace, AO and Specular maps from a single texture right inside 3ds Max.

Programming is becoming completely devalued, and one person can replace an entire team. You'll be able to do everything much faster and better.

3D has it a bit easier. It's not as easy to replace everything there, because you still need precision, which means you still need actual 3D scenes. But assembling them and getting the final result will also speed up thanks to AI pipelines.

People are already looking for other work. And specifically the kind you do with your hands, where artificial intelligence can't get in: electricians, tile setters, plumbers, construction and other manual labor.

Others are starting to release their own services and products using those same AI tools and gradually moving into a different area: SaaS, subscriptions, selling licenses. But this path will also only work for so long, until one prompt can produce a replica of any program. And we're already seeing clones of Photoshop, Substance Painter and other programs being made.

I'll be honest, I'm not a fatalist. But I really don't like where all this is heading, and I think a catastrophe will be simply inevitable. A lot of people will lose their jobs. And those who keep them will be doing far more tasks in a state of brutal crunch, and all of that will lead to fast burnout. In the end, the tools that were supposed to make our lives easier have only made things worse and created far too much competition.

And here's what changed. You used to be able to be a technically savvy person, one of those unique characters who knows one particular topic really well, and that was enough. That doesn't pay off anymore. What you need now is a one-man band: someone who understands all the processes, even without knowing exactly how it all works under the hood. And the winners will be the people who write better prompts, understand and see the end result, and actually take it over the finish line.

Naturally, you still need expertise in your field, but everything is getting much, much simpler.

It's hard to say exactly what comes next. Maybe development will be slowed down, maybe not. If not, many people will be left without work, and the way we approach work will change dramatically.

I'm also hoping local models keep developing. Then you won't have to buy subscriptions and can do a lot on your own computer by yourself. That saves money, and you won't have to keep feeding corporations that have already gotten rich.

If I had to sum it up, my assessment isn't a cheerful one. The IT market is already in a storm, a lot of people have been looking for work for a year or longer, and it feels like things will only get worse from here. Programmers will get hit hardest. 3D has it a bit easier because precision still matters there, but things will speed up there too. Your own service or product only saves you for so long, and those who stay in the profession will work more and burn out faster.

My conclusion is this: just knowing one topic really well doesn't pay off anymore. The winners will be the people who understand the whole process, can write a good prompt and actually take the result over the finish line. I really don't like this future, but we'll have to adapt to it anyway.

How does it look on your end? Have layoffs already touched you, or are you thinking about switching fields too? Let me know in the comments.